Consider the reality facing Obama and his campaign team.
No President since FDR has won re-election with the national unemployment rate above 7.2%. Even the most optimistic liberal economist agree that unemployment will be above 8% in November 2012. And the unemployment rate for June is going up again!
Obama’s job approval ratings consistently struggle to get above 47% among likely voters – that is a losing threshold for any sitting President.
When it comes to Obama’s job performance on the economy he is in a world of hurt. Nearly 60% of voters disapprove of his economic policies and the dismal results they have produced. Nearly half of voters believe we are facing another great depression.
Obamacare, the President’s signature issue, is really no help to him outside his ironclad base of support. A majority of seniors, Independents, men and voters 45+ strongly support its repeal. Among suburban and female voters who voted in large numbers for Obama in ’08, pluralities support repealing Obamacare.
On leadership many voters find Obama to be AWOL. His first budget proposal actually increased spending in the face of a $1.48 Trillion dollar deficit. He refused to address, or layout a plan for the critical spending issues that can bankrupt our future – entitlements. He is fighting efforts for substantial and necessary spending cuts as part of a package to increase the debt ceiling and despite agreeing to a bi-partisan deal to keep the Bush tax cuts in place, he promises again that he will repeal the cuts for incomes above $200K – $250K. Wonder why thousands of small business that file personal income taxes are hesitant to hire more workers, or expand their exposure by taking risks to grow their businesses.
So, how does one run on such a record?
One-way, make your opponent unelectable.
The Obama ’12 campaign plan is simple. Raise a billion dollars. Avoid a primary by appeasing the left – promise to kill the Bush tax cuts, flipping to support gay marriage, ending DADT and demonize Republicans on Medicare and entitlements.
And once the GOP has a nominee – attack and kill him, or her relentlessly.
In ’08 the Obama campaign crucified John McCain by spending hundreds of millions of dollars attacking him on TV, in the mail and on the Internet. It was like shooting fish in a barrel – the GOP base was at best luke-warm to the contrarian independent Senator from Arizona, there was significant voter weariness over the on-going Iraq war, the bottom fell out on Wall Street and a housing market crashed with bills coming due for millions of homeowners who could not afford the homes they owned.
So, is this cynical leadership for our country, or smart politics by Barack Obama? Likely both. So, strap in and get ready for the most negative Presidential campaign we have ever seen. Should be interesting.